A view of the future has to speak to today

To be useful, a vision of the future has to speak to today. It has to help you decide on things to do right now.

Savvy foresight clients always say to me that they need the "what for" in the work we do for them. They mean, they want insights and help figuring out what the future view we're helping them have means to what they have to do right now.

And they are exactly right. Without connections to our lives and work today, a view of the future is not much more than playing with ideas–fun, entertaining, but not helpful.

At the same time, it's essential to not let the focus on "what for" back you off from really exploring your future. Working on strategy without a true view into the future is downright dangerous. It is fire, ready, aim.

So what are you supposed to do? It's simple to recognize, but hard to execute. You need to build views of your future, for example ten years from now–2021–and then focus carefully on how things would change, and what you would need or want to do between now and that year. 

You can work backwards or forwards doing this: tracing possible pathways from today to 2021 or working back in time from the 2021 outcomes to see how we might have gotten there, or working backwards and forwards in time. 

Ultimately, with ideas about where things are headed, and what changes will or must begin to happen now, your strategic options and needs will show through. You will have connected a view of 2021 to things you need to do right now, and you will have made the future relevant to today and clearly connected to your actions now.

So to put it succinctly, any foresight activity should end with "now let's begin."

 

Image: adapted from Mike Licht, notionscapital.com, via Flickr, cc attribution license

Avoiding “fire, ready, aim”

Good foresight is part of ensuring that an organization doesn’t act before it thinks. It’s essential to try to understand the present and future conditions the organization faces. We want to avoid “fire, ready, aim” and try to be sure we know what else is changing around us and what future we’re facing before taking action. [See “Execute, Yes, but Execute for the Future”]

For this reason, Leading Futurists LLC tries to work carefully with clients to help them fit foresight into their organizational processes.

It would be fantastic to have futures thinking pervade the organization—that is the theme of this blog and is what “foresight culture” means.  But as a practical matter, most big organizations will only find time and resources to give the future explicit attention at certain times and places. How can you make the best choices about that, and make what effort and resources you can give go farthest? Here are some central considerations:

  • Readiness: of the group or team to open up their thinking, seize on new insights, and put them to work in the organization’s thinking and strategy. A work team and its leadership need to explicitly discuss and agree on a process that welcomes new ideas, including ones from outside their usual view of things and often, outside their comfort zones.
  • Timeliness: Efforts in exploring longer-term forces and trends, and their implications should come early enough in a planning cycle, in strategy building, and in the innovation process to benefit the processes. We don’t want to look at the future after developing strategies and action plans, for example, when the futures view would very likely have shaped the plans differently.
  • Regularity–so that thinking about the future isn’t so rare as to be unfamiliar and uncomfortable when it happens. Regular, ideally, means always. But if the organization is not going to make foresight an explicit part of its efforts all the time, there should at least be an annual process of enquiring comprehensively into the big forces and trends shaping the business.
  • Prominence. That enquiry should be a prominent and widely-shared effort, so that the most possible numbers of people benefit from insights on the future and can share, in return, their ideas on the implications for the business of the emerging future.

We have found that our efforts on the future for organizations are most valuable when they are part of a “zero stage” in the planning, strategymaking, or innovation process. That means part of the exploratory work done first, in “opening up the question,” and ahead of the usual organizational process stages.

So here’s where you might “put” the foresight part:

  • Day one, in the morning, of the corporate strategic planning meetings
  • In the briefing and background work in advance of a strategy process
  • In the early stages of assembling an ad hoc team to explore a new issue or opportunity area, after sufficient team building, but before the team narrows its focus to key organizational issues and challenges
  • In a meeting/workshop with vendors or customers, to ensure that more of your stakeholders are along for the ride with you in exploring the future, and that they are aware of where your new ideas come from
  • As an ongoing effort to fuel and R&D team’s thinking on emerging opportunity areas, as a part of regular team meetings, or as regular electronic briefing by email or newsletter
  • As a group blog topic shared by a work team or across a cross-functional group
    As a comprehensive exploration and analysis of the future of a critical topic: a sector, technology area, etc. with reports done in the lead up to big organizational initiatives
  • As an annual environmental scan for issues, trends, and opportunities, aimed at informing leadership and strategymaking at all levels.

Most often, a good exploration of the emerging future shapes directly the question of what should be on the table for consideration. We don’t want to fire first and aim later.

Execute, yes, but execute for the future

Not long ago, we heard the leader of a big organization say “strategy is easy.” “Execution,” he said, “is the hard part.” That set our teeth on edge. As futurists, we have to be vigilant that organizations don’t execute the wrong strategies, and they often make strategy without enough foresight.

“Let’s roll,” were Todd Beamer’s heroic words on Flight 93 over Pennsylvania that kept the 9/11 terrorists from one of their Washington targets. That mindset continues in organizations where frustration with deferred changes and unmet opportunities have leaders intent on execution. Their leaders believe they know what needs to be done, and they are people who want to take action. 

There’s nothing wrong with execution
The groundswell in leadership right now about execution is an understandable reaction to organizational frustration with not getting change implemented. The movement stresses successfully carrying out new strategies by becoming more effective in turning ideas into action.

The leadership literature on execution, e.g. Ram Charan, Charles Burck, and Larry Bossidy’s Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done (2002), focuses on closing the gap between aspiration and results. Again, it’s hard to argue with that.

But look a little closer. We stand in danger of trying to perfect our organizations for the present or even the recent past. We really have to build them better—indeed execute better—for the emerging conditions and realities we will face.

Despite improving economic prospects, organizations will almost certainly continue in the “let’s roll” mindset. Foresight needs to not get lost in the wave of energy for execution.

What you can do
You may need to catch up with and keep up with those who are intent on implementing organizational change and keep them focused on changing realities. Your role in challenging assumptions about the future is still critical.

You need to help leaders have things to do, not just more things to think. Some examples:

  • Prepare a whitepaper on critical forces of change for the executive team
  • Encourage the chief to attend Microsoft’s CEO summit or another forward-looking event
  • Create a learning trip to places where important changes are observable first hand
  • Work with those responsible for executive development and succession to build foresight into the skillsets of future leaders. 

So find the new openings for foresight in the culture of execution. Let’s roll!

A blog about foresight

This blog is by John Mahaffie of Leading Futurists LLC. I have been working as a professional futurist since the mid-1980s. Over the years, working with Jennifer Jarratt, I have built up a wide range of experience in exploring the future as a researcher and analyst, as a teacher and workshop leader, and as a consultant, working to guide others in exploring the future.

Drawing on that depth and breadth of experience, I want to share my insights with others on better ways to explore the future, understand what is possible and probable in our future, and connect those insights to strategy and action in organizations.

This blog is my place for sharing my ideas about that. I look forward to a dialogue with you about your experiences and we welcome your ideas, comments, critiques, questions, and suggestions. Use the comments feature here, or drop me a line.

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