goals

A view of the future has to speak to today

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To be useful, a vision of the future has to speak to today. It has to help you decide on things to do right now.

Savvy foresight clients always say to me that they need the "what for" in the work we do for them. They mean, they want insights and help figuring out what the future view we're helping them have means to what they have to do right now.

And they are exactly right. Without connections to our lives and work today, a view of the future is not much more than playing with ideas–fun, entertaining, but not helpful.

At the same time, it's essential to not let the focus on "what for" back you off from really exploring your future. Working on strategy without a true view into the future is downright dangerous. It is fire, ready, aim.

So what are you supposed to do? It's simple to recognize, but hard to execute. You need to build views of your future, for example ten years from now–2021–and then focus carefully on how things would change, and what you would need or want to do between now and that year. 

You can work backwards or forwards doing this: tracing possible pathways from today to 2021 or working back in time from the 2021 outcomes to see how we might have gotten there, or working backwards and forwards in time. 

Ultimately, with ideas about where things are headed, and what changes will or must begin to happen now, your strategic options and needs will show through. You will have connected a view of 2021 to things you need to do right now, and you will have made the future relevant to today and clearly connected to your actions now.

So to put it succinctly, any foresight activity should end with "now let's begin."

 

Image: adapted from Mike Licht, notionscapital.com, via Flickr, cc attribution license

5 critical things in foresight

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What you must have for success in foresight:

A purpose — Why are you exploring the future? The answer will guide what you do, and how you do it
A mindset — The future matters, there are alternative possible futures, and we need to think new thoughts and make new connections to be successful
A habit — Once you get the futures thinking going, don’t stop! Keep it going. It’s not something you do once, and get done
A toolkit — Find and use the tools that will bring you rigor and success as you explore the future
A community — Don’t try to go it alone. Find some people, inside and outside your organization, that will care about what you are doing, listen to your ideas, and hopefully help you explore the future

There are tips, tools, and advice throughout the posts here on ForesightCulture to help you get and refine these. I urge you to explore the posts. The categories displayed on the right side of this page are a great route to specific posts that may help.

Real change is a changed mind

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I've shared my thoughts on "Getting beyond the low-hanging fruit" lately in several forms (see Here and Here), and I use my model for that with clients all the time. It's about taking the vision, leadership, and often courage to make substantial changes to the systems we are a part of: products, processes, organizations, and communities. 

On a personal side, I've also faced the question. In trying to get more physically fit, I have had to think about myself in a new way. I had to decide what guy I want to be, and keep my focus on that guy. Most of my years of trying to get fit, I've gone to gyms, done modest exercising, but generally not met my goals, not finished what I started, and not moved out of my comfort zone.

I changed that (inspired by my very-fit and motivated wife, Jane). I decided that the guy I wanted to be isn't someone who stops short of his fitness goals. He completes what he starts, then sets higher goals, and works towards those. My changed mind is paying off–I am much fitter because of it. 

I have long worked with clients to do the same thing: to envision being different from today and in a new place.The principle is, "First, you should envision." And you need to set a vision of significant change.

In our first exploration of the Future of Packaging, in 1997-98, we urged our packaging department clients to think of themselves as having a seat the the table–having much more influence in the product development/marketing/retailing value chain. That new way of thinking about their status gave the best among the packaging groups a new standing, not just in their own eyes, but in their company's. It made a difference.

At the core of this for me, and at the core of fostering real change in organizations, is the changed mind. It's critical to know what you want to become, and where you want to get to. This means thinking differently about yourself. Otherwise, you, or the organization, really won't get very far–Your future will be the same old thing, with some easy-reach, low-hanging fruit changes made. This is like "going green" by only switching to compact flourescent light bulbs. That's not real change. Real change means a changed mind.

Image: dierk schaefer, via Flickr, cc attribution license

First, you should envision

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My good friend Mike Richmond, who advises companies in the packaging sector on strategy, likes the quote: “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.” He tells most every group this, he’s a huge advocate for visioning and foresight, along with strategic goal setting, and roadmapping. His clients know where they are trying to go, and work to choose the right road to get them there.

Mike’s quote has various sources and attributions. It’s sometimes called Hildebrant’s Principle.

The Cheshire Cat from Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, weighed in in along the same lines:

Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

I don’t much care where–” said Alice.

Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

–so long as I get SOMEWHERE,” Alice added as an explanation.

Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

–Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, Chapter 6

Mike, Hildebrant, and the Cheshire Cat are right. You ought to figure out where you are trying to go. This is critical to anyone, any organization, and it ought to underpin any foresight effort.

So what should you do first when you want to explore your future? If you begin by looking at the trends at play, shaping your future, you’re doing something understandable, and quite typical, but perhaps dangerous. What’s the danger? It’s that you will accept future possibilities as what you are subject to, rather than what you can shape. So you need to not just know where you going, you need to decide where you want to go.

So start with a vision: your vision, the one you prefer. Do that before you get on the road to go somewhere. Get on the right road!

Image: commons.wikimedia.org

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