communication

What people say when you ask them to think about the future

by

Here are four things I hear all the time from folks I am working with, their reactions to me pushing them to think about the future.

Frustration facepalm“Thinking ten years in the future is really hard” Yes, but the rewards are great in exploring the possibilities, as best as you can, and discovering a range of futures you might face. With more of the possibilities explored, you can begin to prepare for what may stay uncertain, but you will be better prepared. Then you can build strategies that are robust against the range of possibilities.

“This is way outside my comfort zone” That, I think, is the whole point. You cannot be sufficiently strategic, respond to, and even lead change, if you stay too comfortable. You have to think the scary thoughts, take some risks. They are only, in doing this, intellectual risks. Nothing’s really at stake when you explore new thoughts about your future, and the stakes are really high if you don’t.

“Nobody can predict the future” That’s absolutely true. But we don’t work to give singular predictions of the future, we work to understand the possibilities and prepare better for them. In fact, the goal is to shape the future, not predict it and then wait to see what happens. If you know what’s possible, you can 1). take action to shape at least part of your destiny, and 2). prepare for uncertainty by charting a course that leaves you ready and adaptable, at least within the range of the more likely possibilities.

“I’ll be retired and on a golf course by then” Not so fast! First, are you sure you’ll be able to retire when you think? And that you’ll want to? Then also, don’t you still have a stake in the future, e.g. of your organization? Are you a shareholder? Do you care about its legacy? And all this is part of the bigger picture, the one that leaves you adequately funded for your retirement, and ensures that the golf course will be in good shape for your hours on the links.

_____________

These are just some common reactions, and there are many more. I’d love to hear yours: your own reaction to being pushed to explore the future, or ones you’ve heard, please feel free to share in the comments section.

Image: silvain.collet via Flickr, Creative Commons attribution license

The unrecognized present

by

Foggy sceneFuturists, by definition, are supposed to talk about the future. So this is a little embarrassing. I’ve recognized, for some time now, that a lot of my work is about showing people what’s already going on. That’s about today! Yet, it’s enough to blow their minds, sometimes, though I’ve not even begun to tell the about the future.

The lesson in this is to make your efforts in exploring change about any change that matters to the people and situations in front of you, whether people are behind the times, and catching up, or pretty much up to date, and needing to understand what they can about what’s next. So don’t worry about the differences, or force distinctions between what’s true now versus what might be in the future.

In fact, you can use the “unrecognized present,” pointed out and explained, to get people to more fully understand what lies ahead. Doing that could be as simple as showing them the leading edge of change, the early adoption of a technology, the first examples and experiments on things, a leading place that is a bellwether for change, and so on. Your advantage: you may be able to bring forth a witness, a video, or pictures of that poorly-understood present, and make it real to them. It’s like showing people the future–almost!

Tip of the pen here to my colleague Katherine Green, an expert in workforce futures. She made me capture and write down the phrase I’ve taken here as my title, and promise to write about it.

Image: sumidiot, via Flickr, creative commons attribution license

8 reasons to explore the future

by

I have seen the future

A few years ago, I led a futures workshop for a client. Afterwards, while we waited for our flights together, he said “So, John, what’s the multiplier on this?” I knew right away he was not wrong to ask, and that I couldn’t answer. He meant, “What is my return on investment for the workshop? In his company—like most—ROI was the way to assess the value and payoff of money spent. Caught a little off guard, I mumbled something at him about how “you can’t put a price on …”
 
It’s hard to measure the payoff from foresight. It is like brand development, or PR, or perhaps an executive development program. You know it is good to do, but it’s hard to measure the outcome in ways that others, especially CFOs! will believe in.
 
If possible, you should stay clear of trying to measure the value of foresight in conventional ways. Instead, understand how to talk about its power and payoff for your organization. Learn to sell that to your colleagues and whoever is paying the bills. You’re faith in foresight isn’t enough. You will need to show them specifically “what you get” when you explore the future.
 
In this post, I am sharing reasons for foresight in simple, workaday terms. These are reasons that you can use in understanding, explaining, and justifying your use of time and resources in exploring the future. Maybe these are things you can tell the boss:
 
1.      We need to give the future the attention it deserves: there are things we need to understand better as we make decisions and take action.
 
2.      Let’s get our heads out of the sand: We need to spend some time, together, on the long-term goals of the company, and not just worry about our individual “turf”.
 
3.      Let’s get everyone’s assumptions about the future out in the open, since they shape how we make decisions, our strategy discussions need to be done with clear thinking about what’s going on in the world, and where things are headed. We don’t have to have consensus, but we need to know where everyone is coming from, and take a clear-headed look at what we believe is true.
 
4.      We need to make sure our plans make sense. Everything we do ought to be evaluated against how the future will shape up, otherwise, we will make the wrong decisions.
 
5.      We need to decide what to do next – not just roll along doing what we’ve been doing. Let’s not miss new opportunities just because we didn’t get around to thinking about them.
 
6.      We need to get un-stuck: A clear look at the future can help us see beyond our current problems and issues—they’ve got us truly stuck, let’s get the team focused on the positive –what we can do, not what we can’t do.
 
7.      We will be more successful if we create our future together: with more of our people, our clients, with and other stakeholders involved. We need to get people on board, so they are ready for the changes we are going to make.
 
8.      Let’s not be blind-sided by change any longer. We can pick up on the weak signals, anticipate what might happen, lay some plans and contingencies for it, but most importantly, make it into opportunity.
 
This post has a close cousin: Making the case for foresight: 9 reasons why a global crisis is a critical time to think about the future. You may also find good arguments for your foresight initiatives there, especially as our economic crisis continues.

 

What are we talking about here?

by

It’s hard to open up a discussion about the future and not put most everything on the table for reconsideration. When the way is clear to do that, great, go for it! But so often, the charge to the group exploring the future is to move more incrementally: find new opportunities for growth, is a common charge among our clients. We are usually not reconsidering everything, we are exploring options for a part of the system, such as a product group, a market, or a division of the company.

But, as I’ve seen again and again with my clients, it is hard to keep things contained. You’ll find groups you work with discover pretty quickly that they are talking about bigger things than they thought. Recently, at a corporate workshop I helped lead, the group discovered, as they explored the future for market growth opportunities, that the very culture and nature of their company had to change. That insight was profound and scary to them, and they will have a tough job going forward.

You will often have to go back to the leadership and get their blessing to open up the question, involve more people from a wider range of functions and divisions. Initial expectations, rather than being successfully met, may get blown away. Be prepared to discover something other than what you thought you were looking for. Then be prepared to communicate that discovery to others, and get others on board for greater change.

You will find it valuable, and often essential, to have your leadership be part of the process. Too often, those not participating in a futures exploration are not ready to hear and grasp the discoveries the group made. So when you get ready to explore the future, take a hard look at what’s on the table for change. Be ready to answer the question: “what are we talking about here?”

Pay it forward

by

Relay runner by Latvian, Via Flickr cc licenseThe way to make foresight more effective is to pay it forward. That means sharing what you find in exploring the future with others, in and out of your organization. And when you get the sharing going, and people will share back. You are encouraging a conversation about the future, and it needs nurturing. Environmental scanning is at the core of effective foresight. But over the years it has often been done by people making scanning discoveries, working in isolation, and holding their cards close. They are not part of a foresight culture, and by working quietly they limit how much they can help the organization cope with the future. There’s a simple principle that can make scanning work better for you and make it valuable to the organizations you are a part of–sharing. You want exploring the future to be a habit for you and your colleagues, and you want sharing what you find out to be also. You can model those behaviors. Get yourself and others in the habit of sharing. Sharing discoveries is how they get put to use in an organization. So when you get an insight on the future, pay it forward. I don’t suggest you become a clipping service for your colleagues. Instead, when you find things with meaning, or, when scanning leads you to a new idea, share it. You can tell it, blog it, illustrate it, email it. Pay it forward. Tell your colleagues what you’ve discovered, and what you think it means. Ask them what they think it means. Make this communication quick and compelling. The backup-an article perhaps, can come later, or you can make it a link in an email. But seize on the finding and let others know about it. Get a conversation going. Pay it forward. Pay it forward is a concept originated a long time ago-there are disagreements about when and by whom. The idea took hold more recently in a book and movie by the same name: Pay it Forward (2000). Its focus was on charitable acts-giving to others in need, and, giving with the message: "don’t pay me back, pay it forward." Our case for the need to share may not be quite as strong, but the impulse should be the same. So share in foresight too, spread the good deed, pay it forward. [Image: by Latvian, via Flickr, cc attribution license]

Update: Please see also this special page on environmental scanning.

Come over to the dark side

by

We are continually faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems.
–John W. Gardner 1912-2002, author, business, leader, designer of Medicare

I favor negative scenarios-at least sometimes. Individuals should contemplate, once in a while, what they would do if they lost their job, their house, or their spouse. Why? Because reckoning with who we would be, what we would have left, and how we would get on with things builds a more robust view of the future and our part in it. Organizations should play out the same kind of thinking-ultimately to get to positive and empowered views of their futures.

Of course, positive scenarios are also good and powerful. Peter Schwartz, in The Art of the Long View, asserts that clear, evocative scenarios about a post-apartheid South Africa-positive stories-carried around the country and presented to groups, especially to white South Africans, helped end apartheid. He asserts that they enabled people to imagine a new South Africa, without apartheid, that was good for blacks and whites. Those positive scenarios met people’s fears head-on, and showed them how their future could be positive.

There’s also great power, and perhaps even greater insight in negative scenarios. Views of harsh change in your sector, for example, make things look dire. An organization can see change-steady or discontinuous change-that truly threatens them. And at first a dark scenario can make things look hopeless. But a negative scenario gives you the chance to imagine a positive future against that picture of troubling change.

Nothing is more powerful than that. It’s much easier-it comes naturally-to see a successful future when conditions are in your favor. Thinking your way to a positive outlook when the picture looks bleak means you can find success in adversity. You will be stronger for it.

In truth, in our consulting practice we nearly always have groups work on both positive and negative scenarios. A collection of scenarios, positive, negative, and uncertain, gives a group the most chance to chart a course with understanding of the range of potential outcomes. As Norman Vincent Peale said in 7 million plus copies of his book, there’s power in positive thinking. But there is plenty of power in negative thinking too.

Why I love introducing scenario thinking to people

by

Scenario workshop flipchartScenario workshop flipchartScenario workshop flipchartScenario workshop flipchartScenario workshop flipchartAs a futurist, my favorite thing is to work with groups to develScenario workshop flipchartScenario workshop flipchartop scenarios. The technique is powerful and it’s not easy for people to comprehend and do. But the rewards are enormous.

The power of scenario building is in how it gets people to immerse themselves in the future. Working on scenarios leaves them no choice but to think both broadly and concretely about the future. Every group I’ve done this with over 20 years has exceeded my expectations and probably their own, as well. They come up with marvelous, provocative ideas, and important insights for their organizations. I’ve learned from being a part of each group, and I’ve seen the people I’ve worked with gain from the experience.

It is clear that once people have had the scenario-building experience, they have new ideas and places to go in their heads. They’ve got a much richer view of the future. They also have a new mental habit–to think about alternative futures, not accepting that there’s some inevitable future out there. They should, and usually do, have a sense of empowerment—that there are parts of their future they can shape, starting now.

So take this note as a call for more scenario building in organizations. This great experience should be shared by far more people. I am looking forward to my next chance to work with a group on scenarios.

Environmental Scanning, Flickr, YouTube, and photo blogs

by

youtube-flickr.jpgEnvironmental scanning is a technique in which almost anything goes. Scanning simply means exploring the universe of information available to discover deeper insights about what is going on and what is changing in the world. It’s the core technique of foresight, and there is no substitute. But too often, people’s environmental scanning is too narrow. One way it is narrow is in depending mostly on the written word: traditionally print news sources, and more recently, electronic sources that are word based. What’s missing is the rich and evocative potential of images. Since people working in foresight cannot go everywhere and be everwhere, it’s powerful and important to open up an additional channel in environmental scanning that gives at least a flavor of change around the world, in different cultures, in different sectors, and in different social circles. Fortunately, there is a world of "eyes" out there, capturing pictures and videos that we can look at, think about, and use to help others think new thoughts. You can consider working to add the visual to your foresight efforts. For example:

  • Add image sources to your environmental scanning. There are dozens of "daily photo blogs" on different themes and, particularly, from different places. The authors monitor, among others, daily photo blogs from Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh City, Russia, Accra, and Sao Paulo. Adding the images to your regular scanning adds deeper insight on what is happening around the world.
  • Use more pictures in your presentations–you might even try a presentation that is all images. Most people will benefit, and some who are visual learners will much more reliably understand what you are trying to convey. Flickr is a great images source–you can’t go see everything yourself, but there are pictures from all over the world on Flickr. You can also sometimes get a sense of how others look at the world through what the people sharing images on Flickr show and say about their pictures. 
  • Carry a small digital camera whereever you go, or use your cell phone camera, and try to see signs of change. Some of the images will evoke a lot of ideas for you, and you can use them in your work and in conveying things to others.
  • Explore YouTube. You might take a regular look at the top videos there. Whether artful, amateurish, meaningful or ridiculous, the top videos meant a lot to a lot of people, and are worth at least a glance.

It may be that for those of us exploring the future, a picture is worth even more than a thousand words. Anything that helps us think more deeply is especially valuable to our efforts, and "going visual" will yield better foresight.

Update: Please see also this special page on environmental scanning.

Fighting back for foresight

by

With great regularity, journalists and other writers pen pieces on the decline of futures or on failed predictions. Our professional futurist colleagues have often boiled this down to a shorthand: “where’s my flying car?”

We have often joined our colleagues in the Association of Professional Futurists (www.profuturists.org) to compile responses to these pieces. The World Future Society (www.wfs.org) also works hard to counter misperceptions about futurists and foresight work. Most in the field feel that the field is doing well, and that attention to the future is improving around the world. That many of our colleagues in organizations have futures job titles and responsibilities is good evidence for that.

At Leading Futurists LLC we believe foresight is doing well, but that we have more battles yet to fight. The value proposition of the field is changing from provocative “out there” thinking to ideas about change that organizations can respond to today.

Foresight and futures thinking tools are becoming part of everyday strategy making in organizations. Futures-minded people serve on or consult to teams as the people who understand the inevitability of change and what it means to the organization. They bring a knowledge base about the future to bear on an organization’s strategies and actions.

But though foresight is gaining ground, in too many organizations short-term thinking reigns, and it dominates in society overall. We battle the widespread conviction that what is relevant is the immediate scene; this quarter’s performance and today’s issues. Short-term thinking is a condition of organizational life, and it will drive out habitual foresight, if we let it. So let’s get to work on the problem.

Making foresight a daily habit of more people in more organizations is a new kind of work. It is different from just being provocative and wowing an audience with gee whiz ideas about startling new technologies. Here’s what we need to do instead:

  • Keep the future on the agenda, bring up trends and themes of change in work meetings and planning sessions
  • Change what people expect when you talk about the future from the gee whiz, to useful, actionable ideas about emerging challenges and opportunities
  • As you get a new insight on the future from your scanning, think about who the 5 or 6 people in your organization are who you know should see it. Send it along to them with a comment or interpretation. Any busy colleague will appreciate it.
  • Show people how to think about change. Model this by giving people an image of the future that relates to a question they are grappling with. For example, in the packaging sector, you imagine for them a near term future in which every package has a radio-frequency ID tag on it for automated inventory and checkout.

These are some of the things to do to normalize foresight and make it a daily habit in your organization. They are steps toward truly having a Foresight Culture.

Execute, yes, but execute for the future

by

Not long ago, we heard the leader of a big organization say “strategy is easy.” “Execution,” he said, “is the hard part.” That set our teeth on edge. As futurists, we have to be vigilant that organizations don’t execute the wrong strategies, and they often make strategy without enough foresight.

“Let’s roll,” were Todd Beamer’s heroic words on Flight 93 over Pennsylvania that kept the 9/11 terrorists from one of their Washington targets. That mindset continues in organizations where frustration with deferred changes and unmet opportunities have leaders intent on execution. Their leaders believe they know what needs to be done, and they are people who want to take action. 

There’s nothing wrong with execution
The groundswell in leadership right now about execution is an understandable reaction to organizational frustration with not getting change implemented. The movement stresses successfully carrying out new strategies by becoming more effective in turning ideas into action.

The leadership literature on execution, e.g. Ram Charan, Charles Burck, and Larry Bossidy’s Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done (2002), focuses on closing the gap between aspiration and results. Again, it’s hard to argue with that.

But look a little closer. We stand in danger of trying to perfect our organizations for the present or even the recent past. We really have to build them better—indeed execute better—for the emerging conditions and realities we will face.

Despite improving economic prospects, organizations will almost certainly continue in the “let’s roll” mindset. Foresight needs to not get lost in the wave of energy for execution.

What you can do
You may need to catch up with and keep up with those who are intent on implementing organizational change and keep them focused on changing realities. Your role in challenging assumptions about the future is still critical.

You need to help leaders have things to do, not just more things to think. Some examples:

  • Prepare a whitepaper on critical forces of change for the executive team
  • Encourage the chief to attend Microsoft’s CEO summit or another forward-looking event
  • Create a learning trip to places where important changes are observable first hand
  • Work with those responsible for executive development and succession to build foresight into the skillsets of future leaders. 

So find the new openings for foresight in the culture of execution. Let’s roll!

Follow by Email
Instagram