John Mahaffie

What people say when you ask them to think about the future

February 18, 2025March 18, 2014 by John B. Mahaffie

Here are four things I hear all the time from folks I am working with, their reactions to me pushing them to think about the future.

“Thinking ten years in the future is really hard” Yes, but the rewards are great in exploring the possibilities, as best as you can, and discovering a range of futures you might face. With more of the possibilities explored, you can begin to prepare for what may stay uncertain, but you will be better prepared. Then you can build strategies that are robust against the range of possibilities.

“This is way outside my comfort zone” That, I think, is the whole point. You cannot be sufficiently strategic, respond to, and even lead change, if you stay too comfortable. You have to think the scary thoughts, take some risks. They are only, in doing this, intellectual risks. Nothing’s really at stake when you explore new thoughts about your future, and the stakes are really high if you don’t.

“Nobody can predict the future” That’s absolutely true. But we don’t work to give singular predictions of the future, we work to understand the possibilities and prepare better for them. In fact, the goal is to shape the future, not predict it and then wait to see what happens. If you know what’s possible, you can 1). take action to shape at least part of your destiny, and 2). prepare for uncertainty by charting a course that leaves you ready and adaptable, at least within the range of the more likely possibilities.

“I’ll be retired and on a golf course by then” Not so fast! First, are you sure you’ll be able to retire when you think? And that you’ll want to? Then also, don’t you still have a stake in the future, e.g. of your organization? Are you a shareholder? Do you care about its legacy? And all this is part of the bigger picture, the one that leaves you adequately funded for your retirement, and ensures that the golf course will be in good shape for your hours on the links.

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These are just some common reactions, and there are many more. I’d love to hear yours: your own reaction to being pushed to explore the future, or ones you’ve heard, please feel free to share in the comments section.

Image: silvain.collet via Flickr, Creative Commons attribution license

Dark clouds and boundless opportunities

February 18, 2025April 22, 2011 by John B. Mahaffie

A friend of mine told me the other day that about once a year, the leadership of his company (he runs a division) meet off site and talk about the business. He said the time spent is about 50% "Oh my God, how are we going to survive the year?" and 50% excited chatter about new growth opportunities in the coming years.

They have things about right. No company should let itself feel and act beaten down and endangered as a standard attitude. But a little fear, particularly when it helps drive initiative and ambition, is a good thing and an essential tool for strategic thinking and leadership. We need to face uncertainties, consider what we don't know and need to solve, and confront the very real change that is always surrounding us.

But the fearful talk should be contained, only periodic, and actually used as a stepping stone to get into positive, new-goal-focused conversation.

The mindset and tools of foresight can help the cause here. They can help you discover that there are new opportunities, and get everyone past thinking that's limited to today's crises and constraints. Find ways to stretch your thinking deeper into the future, and you can make sure that the sense of opportunity doesn't lose out to the sense of dark clouds.

Images: via Flickr, by dryhead, and DieselDemon. Creative Commons Attribution License

9 things that “lock us in” in our thinking

February 18, 2025January 26, 2011 by John B. Mahaffie

There are lots of things that can take up residence in our minds and shape how we think. Just knowing that is empowering and can make a difference in getting us out of what can be a mental straightjacket. Here are some of those things:

Language – There is still controversy in the social sciences about how, and how much language shapes thought, but it’s clear that the language we use reflects how we think about things. Sometimes, we need to take a close look at our language—our names for things. It may be holding back thought. See also, Culture wires the brain
Culture – Culture obviously shapes much of what we think and do, and how we learn. You cannot escape your culture, nor the way it shapes your thinking altogether, but again, knowing how it may be affecting your thought and approach to things is itself powerful. See also, Culture wires the brain
Built/sunk investment – We don’t want to let go of things we have invested in, either in money, effort, time or reputation. You may need to ask: is my investment in this blinding me to what I need to recognize?
Framing – George Lakoff has written well and convincingly about how mental frames we carry around in our heads influence. Frames are conceptual structures we use in thinking, and they take up a spot in our minds and assert themselves over what we think until, if ever, they are replaced by other frames. My thoughts and more on Lakoff’s perspective are here and here.
Not invented here – Similarly to sunk investment when that investment is through effort and emotional connections, we may often reject an idea that we and/or our colleagues didn’t think of ourselves.
Invented here – When we, our colleagues, our classmates, our heroes, etc. are behind an idea, it takes up a hard-to-dislodge place in our thinking, and we may be reluctant or even unable to scrutinize and evaluate it for truth, usefulness, and so on. In essence, we can be too loyal in our thinking, and not open enough to ideas from elsewhere.
Greed – Many of us are too easily swayed by looking at things from the point of view of how they could help us make money or reduce our chances to make money.
Ignorance, misunderstanding – Simple lack of knowledge, or incomplete knowledge can lead to wrong thoughts and conclusions.
Fear – Fear of change, perhaps foremost, but fear of the unknown, strangers, different cultures and customs, and so on, can make us shut out information and ideas as “foreign” or “strange"

And there are plenty more, of course.

What can you do about these things? The most important thing is to recognize the biases and mis-direction they can cause in your thinking, and talk about that. Try to offset the biases inherent in all this with time and effort spent considering other points of view. Open your mind, and work to keep it open. Involve your colleagues in this too, and try to build a general habit of confronting biases like these.

Image: shannonpatrick17, via Flickr, cc attribution license

Fear the old, not the new

February 18, 2025August 6, 2008 by John B. Mahaffie

Guilty as charged! Even futurists can fall into the trap of denying the forces of change, wishing they didn’t exist. What happened to me is that I caught myself being unwilling to look at how a system is changing because I didn’t want it to change.

I am a big fan of baseball, and spend a lot of time helping my local Little League. I’ve read deep into the history of the game-it’s well over 150 years old, and I’ve steeped myself in the traditions of the game. One of baseball’s qualities, and one that is important to many of its fans, is how little it has changed over the decades. Valid or not, students of the game compare statistics from today’s players to those from decades ago. We assume continuity, and even that there has not been significant change to the key things that shape the game.

So a few months ago, an Association for Professional Futurists member passed along a journalist’s request for ideas on the future of baseball. I knew I could and should answer, and some of my colleagues told me they were sure they would see my ideas enter the mix on the Association’s listserve. I stayed silent.

I realized a little later that I clammed up because I do not want the game to change. That’s an awfully dangerous frame of mind for a futurist. But I am glad I recognized what was happening to me. It’s a danger we all face. Most importantly, it puts us in a purely defensive position when we have the chance to shape change. Instead of positive ideas for change, we’re likely to resist, cast doubt, and work against change. That usually doesn’t work, and we lose the chance to be part of shaping our future.

Fearing change

It’s normal and natural to be cautious or fearful about change. So we often fear the new. But often it’s the old that will get us. Old views, old ways, old systems, old attitudes can be dangerous.

A big part of improving foresight is helping ourselves and others get unstuck, change our mental models and points of view, and changing the language with which we speak about the world. In business fearing change can be about holding on to the big legacy of sunk investments and to deep-rooted practices that probably have to change.

The culture of a business is not what’s rigid, necessarily, it’s the practices-the ways that culture is manifested and carried out that are. Learning to get unstuck means recognizing those things, and being willing to confront them. A good foresight culture makes doing that a part of its culture.

Image: Boston Public Library