vision

5 foresight steps for dealing with community resistance to change

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MainStreetNovelI recently met a couple who are leaders in their small Southern US town. They are not elected leaders. They are self-driven change makers. They are working hard and spending their own money to improve the town. They have planted thousands of flowers and created a festival to build town pride and draw visitors. They are planning new spaces for incubating creativity and businesses.

Their efforts reminded me of Carol Milford, the heroine in Sinclair Lewis' Main Street. She wanted to bring culture and sophistication to her adopted town. Like Carol Milford, my friends face tradition-minded, suspicious townspeople who don't understand their motives or vision for the community.

They are working for a better future for everyone, so why the pushback?

It's likely a combination of things. People are unsure or suspicious of the changes. Their instinct is it's better to have what you know than to chance it on unclear and outlandish new ideas. They don't know or share the vision of the couple who are leading change. So what do my friends need to do?

5 ways foresight can help

  1. Sell their vision better. This means bringing clarity to their ideas about change and their motivations for pressing for it. They do so while respecting and celebrating the town's legacies, and the people who are a part of those. Appreciative inquiry is a technique for working with groups that starts with acknowledging strengths and positive legacies. It offers a starting point for a community (or organization) seeking to move forward cooperatively.
  2. Join with stakeholders to explore a positive future. This means not claiming to have all the answers. Instead, invite community members to help forge plans. Community members with the strongest sense of "ownership" of the town should be allies, not opponents. Giving them participation in the process preserves their ownership. Some thoughts on dealing with people whose thinking is stuck in the present (or past) are here: "When only you see the future." Also, "difficult history" may be part of what my friends face in their town. See: "How to break free of difficult history."
  3. Start the conversation by sharing assumptions about the future. Have participants in visioning meetings share their thoughts on "In 2027, I believe that ______________" . That view is at least 10 years in the future. Why? because that will help people jump past their immediate concerns and "today" objections. Probing this question does two things. 1). It gets the juices flowing, getting everyone's head in the future. 2). It surfaces assumptions about the future that we all carry and operate on whether we've told each other them or not. Sometimes the inability to move forward will be rooted in unexamined assumptions about the future. See: "In 20xx I believe that ________"
  4. Do some unencumbered thinking. With stakeholders, explore the question: "What would we build today if none of this existed?" You don't do this because you plan to blot out everything and start over. This discussion allows people to imagine things not from the perspective of rigid, existing barriers that would make it hard to acheive them, but rather, from the point of view of what would be best. See also: "The clean slate scenario".  
  5. Build a clear vision of a desired future. Create 10- or 20-year views into the future. These scenarios could include stories about "what if we don't change" as well as views of positive futures. You can develop these scenarios with people from across the community. The scenarios will bring out clear and vivid images of the future. An artist's renderings of the future can further showcase the new ideas and enourage feedback. See also: "Why we need scenarios to be ready for the future".

Entering into processes like this is scary. But my new friends show only signs of excitement about it. They will make an even greater difference going forward, armed with some of the tools of foresight.

If you are working in a community or organization with these sorts of challenges, I can help you develop and lead a process to get further, more smoothly. Let me know if I can help: jbmahaffie@leadingfuturists.biz and 202-271-0444.

In the future, there’ll be cheesecake

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3375309464_90dec3a600_mIf you are like me, when you crave a treat, it's often cheesecake. And though I have, a time or two, made my own cheesecake, I mostly just want marvelous, taste-pleasing cheesecake. I don't care how you make it. 

Cheesecake is a whole which need not be understood in its parts. Don't bore me with the details, pass me a slice of cheesecake! I may or may not ask you for the recipe.

At times, when we consider what might be true in the future, we can learn the most if we accept things holistically. For example, we are beginning to hear about self-driving cars, and Google. among others, has demonstrated technology for them. You could find out a great deal about how self-driving, self-navigating cars will work.

But once you have the idea that cars can drive themselves, the really interesting work is in figuring out what that would mean. Don't bore me with the details, let's imagine what self-driving cars would do for us. I may or may not ask how they actually work.

To put things simply, you often benefit from, once you are pretty sure that something is possible, playing out ideas about how it would shape things, rather than bogging down in the technical details. 

I got this idea from professor Mere Berryman, who is an educator, a pedagogy specialist, at the University of Waikato, in New Zealand. We met at the World Innovation Summit for Education, 2013, in Doha, Qatar. Thanks Mere!

___________

UPDATE

___________

Mere Berryman shared a little more with me: 

A M?ori woman leader in New Zealand once said 

"Mehemea ka moemoe? ahau, ko ahau anake. Mehemea ka moemoe? a t?tou, ka taea e t?tou."

"If I dream a dream, I dream alone. If we all dream together, we can succeed together" 

–Te Puea H?rangi, 1883-1952. [bio]

 

Image: zingyyellow…! via Flickr, Creative Commons attribution license

How to break free of difficult history

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Easter Rising ceremony 2012Difficult history is a historical legacy, often of conflict, that still shapes our behavior and interactions. In the United States, there are the lingering effects of the Civil War, even 150 years later, with its legacy in Federal/state and sometimes, North/South distrust, and the history and legacy of slavery. In post-apartheid South Africa, there is the legacy of a system which still shapes relations among the ethnic groups of the country. The world is full of other examples.

Foresight, including shared visions of the future, can make the difference in carrying people past, or at least counterbalancing difficult history. Peter Schwartz, in The Art of the Long View says that scenarios of positive futures helped South Africans see past their divisions as they moved to take apart the apartheid system [See earlier post]. 

Ireland, of course, has its share of difficult history and in particular its history. Ireland's President Michael Higgins, in speaking on an April 2014 state visit to the UK, worked carefully to acknowledge the "common ground we share" [LINK].

A powerful way to build and bring focus on common ground, and to work past difficult history, is to explicitly build those shared views of the future, ideally, positive, intentional futures that serve the interests of what have been parties at odds with one another. This is the one of the powers of foresight.

As President Higgins put it:

"As both our islands enter periods of important centenaries we can and must reflect on the ethical importance of respecting different but deeply interwoven narratives. Such reflection will offer us an opportunity to craft a bright future on the extensive common ground we share and where we differ in matters of interpretation to have respectful empathy for each other's perspectives."

What you can do if you have difficult history to dea with: 

1). Acknowledge your difficult history, surface attitudes and assumptions about it in open, honest conversation. A critical part of this is finding the balancing between honoring history and getting past it.

2). Work with the key stakeholders or factions to find common ground in the future: scenarios of future success that can be shared.  Apologies and reparations may be a part of this, but the great strength is in new thinking–thinking about the future we will share. Dwelling on a dark history without that leaves work undone. Your efforts and energy are best focused on counterbalancing the difficult history that continues to influence things with postive and strong images of the future.

Image: William Murphy, via Flickr, Creative Commons Attribution license

Regret shapes the future, but so does satisfaction

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Lotto ticketIn a controlled study, researchers found people routinely willing to swap similar pens with others, but less willing to exchange lottery tickets. The reason? The lottery ticket in your hand has a potential future value which may—you don’t know—exceed that of another ticket. You don’t want to swap away a ticket that might turn out to be the winner. This happens even if the subjects of the experiment are reminded that probability shows either ticket has an equal likelihood of being a winner.

With pens, you are not likely to come out behind. A pen’s a pen, and neither your pen nor the other guy’s is the key to a future fortune. This shows how potential future regret shapes our decisions in the present.

So we have the power to anticipate having regret in the future. That means regret is not only a back-facing emotion, it also shapes our view forward, and so it shapes our future. The regret we feel can be about a missed future chance, an anticipation of failure, or an expectation that we will come up short in how we handle change.

The antonym of regret is satisfaction, and I would argue that anticipated satisfaction can be a powerful motivator for the future. But we have to allow ourselves to proceed with confidence armed with a vision of a positive future. That suggests to me that positive scenarios of our future are a strong motivator.

There’s not likely to be much of an outcome, for sure, if you go around expecting the worse, starting up with your regret even before things have transpired. This sort of sour approach to the present and the future is nothing but destructive. In my view, Pollyanna had it about right—we need a positive outlook and we can help build that with a focus on the future that gets us to positive ideas about the future. Along the way exploring people’s fears, but also their hopes about the future will help the cause.

See also: “The Optimism Bias” on optimism bias: are we hardwired for optimism?

I’ve weighed in before on hope, optimism, and the future:

“The Right Kind of Hope in Futures Thinking”

“It Doesn’t Seem Like the World is Going to Hell”

Image: jmoneyyyyyyy, via Flickr, Creative Commons attribution license.

The essential power of we in shaping the future

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Please note: foresightculture.com is 5 years old today. Thanks to all my readers, followers, commenters and linkers for all the great help over the years. I am delighted to celebrate with a Blog Action Day post. #BAD12 #PowerOfWe #Blogactionday

The Power of We“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
–Margaret Mead

Foresight–the deliberate act of looking into the future and assessing what we can know and should do about it–is critical. And foresight is a social act. It depends on the power of we.

Foresight can hardly be successful without engaging others. For one, you are not likely to know enough to adequately understand possible and likely futures, if you try to figure it all out by yourself. For another, the things you decide to do about the future: shaping it and responding to it, will involve others. You can’t go it alone. Any future that would wholly belong to a single person, impacting and depending on no others, is not a future of any significance

Margaret Mead’s quote at the top reminds us that we don’t “get” a future, and can’t simply wait for the future and deal with it when it comes. We have to take action, together, to create it. Turning from just accepting change to actively shaping it is likely to fail if you go it alone, and succeed if you engage with others.

So we have to work to invent the future with others:

  • their inputs will make our efforts stronger, ensure clarity and comprehensive thinking
  • their participation will give our results credibility and buy in
  • it’s their future too, and they need to be a part of creating it

For organizations…

In organizations, it’s natural to explore the future and make plans with a focus inside the organization and aimed at its interests. But that too is limiting. Good organizational foresight lets stakeholders in and is not done in a vacuum. The power of we for organizations means building the organization’s part of the future with clear thinking about opinions from, and impacts on, every one affected. I always urge organizations to develop their ideas for the future with the people they will impact: workers, the community, customers, business partners.

So how big can your “we” be? If you are a big player, it may literally be the world. If you are part of a local system, it ought to include your neighbors, other community players, the public, etc. Inside an organization, you at least should be talking about “we” the whole organization, not “we” the executive suite.

Otherwise, an organization is at best trying to spring a future plan on others without their foreknowledge, and without their input. They may not like it, and they probably will not get it. “Where did this come from?” they’ll ask, and rightly so. “Why didn’t you ask me?” “I don’t see things this way.” And so on. It’s likely to fail.

The essence of a foresight culture–the theme of my blog–is that foresight is done by the group, not some individual. I summarized this in a post:  What is a Foresight Culture?

So for a successful future, harness the Power of We!

Image: James Cridland, via Flickr, CC attribution license

Real change is a changed mind

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I've shared my thoughts on "Getting beyond the low-hanging fruit" lately in several forms (see Here and Here), and I use my model for that with clients all the time. It's about taking the vision, leadership, and often courage to make substantial changes to the systems we are a part of: products, processes, organizations, and communities. 

On a personal side, I've also faced the question. In trying to get more physically fit, I have had to think about myself in a new way. I had to decide what guy I want to be, and keep my focus on that guy. Most of my years of trying to get fit, I've gone to gyms, done modest exercising, but generally not met my goals, not finished what I started, and not moved out of my comfort zone.

I changed that (inspired by my very-fit and motivated wife, Jane). I decided that the guy I wanted to be isn't someone who stops short of his fitness goals. He completes what he starts, then sets higher goals, and works towards those. My changed mind is paying off–I am much fitter because of it. 

I have long worked with clients to do the same thing: to envision being different from today and in a new place.The principle is, "First, you should envision." And you need to set a vision of significant change.

In our first exploration of the Future of Packaging, in 1997-98, we urged our packaging department clients to think of themselves as having a seat the the table–having much more influence in the product development/marketing/retailing value chain. That new way of thinking about their status gave the best among the packaging groups a new standing, not just in their own eyes, but in their company's. It made a difference.

At the core of this for me, and at the core of fostering real change in organizations, is the changed mind. It's critical to know what you want to become, and where you want to get to. This means thinking differently about yourself. Otherwise, you, or the organization, really won't get very far–Your future will be the same old thing, with some easy-reach, low-hanging fruit changes made. This is like "going green" by only switching to compact flourescent light bulbs. That's not real change. Real change means a changed mind.

Image: dierk schaefer, via Flickr, cc attribution license

First, you should envision

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My good friend Mike Richmond, who advises companies in the packaging sector on strategy, likes the quote: “If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there.” He tells most every group this, he’s a huge advocate for visioning and foresight, along with strategic goal setting, and roadmapping. His clients know where they are trying to go, and work to choose the right road to get them there.

Mike’s quote has various sources and attributions. It’s sometimes called Hildebrant’s Principle.

The Cheshire Cat from Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, weighed in in along the same lines:

Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

I don’t much care where–” said Alice.

Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

–so long as I get SOMEWHERE,” Alice added as an explanation.

Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

–Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, Chapter 6

Mike, Hildebrant, and the Cheshire Cat are right. You ought to figure out where you are trying to go. This is critical to anyone, any organization, and it ought to underpin any foresight effort.

So what should you do first when you want to explore your future? If you begin by looking at the trends at play, shaping your future, you’re doing something understandable, and quite typical, but perhaps dangerous. What’s the danger? It’s that you will accept future possibilities as what you are subject to, rather than what you can shape. So you need to not just know where you going, you need to decide where you want to go.

So start with a vision: your vision, the one you prefer. Do that before you get on the road to go somewhere. Get on the right road!

Image: commons.wikimedia.org

Use foresight to avoid losing your way

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Compass: don't lose your way!
It’s too easy to swap your organization’s true mission for single-mindedness about preserving and defending the institution as an institution. The clear and broad view you get with foresight can help you avoid that.
Kevin Carey, policy director of Education Sector, an independent think tank in Washington, published an essay, “The ‘Veritas’ About Harvard” in the October 2, 2009 Chronicle of Higher Education. In it, he offers a fierce critique of Harvard. He accuses the University of having invested part of its enormous endowment (which is tens of billions of dollars) merely in the apparatus of the institution-staff and buildings, rather than in extending Harvard’s quality education to more students. What Harvard did with its money, in his view, is build a lot of new, glossy buildings and grow its staff, which would seemingly make it able to raise the number of undergraduates. But it did not.
Carey makes the point that: “money is the great leveler: It makes even the smartest people in the world act stupidly.” What was stupid about Harvard’s investments? They invested to preserve the institution, rather than further its mission. Harvard invested to extend its prestige and exclusivity, and the privileges of its elite faculty and leadership, rather than to extend education to more students. Carey notes: “An institution truly dedicated to teaching students has natural limits on how much money it needs. At some point, the land and space and professors suffice.”
This harsh critique leveled at Harvard suggests a wider lesson that can be critical to almost any institution as it builds toward its future. Institutions too easily take a single-minded continue-at-all-costs view that can blind their leaders to their true or original purposes. The narrowness may not be intentional, but it’s powerful and can destroy what matters most. I don’t suggest that institutions give up all aspirations of growth and financial security, just that they reflect with some care on what they are doing, and step back and take a long-term view.
It’s reasonable to argue, and some of the online commenters on the Carey piece do, that Harvard is a private institution that can do whatever it wants. That’s true, but I’ll bet overall it is not the intention of Harvard to merely build enormous wealth and extend its holdings in Cambridge. I’ll bet the University still wants to be a premier educational institution and to make a difference in the world. It’s the demanding financial beast that Harvard became that threatens to pull it away from its true mission:
“Harvard College adheres to the purposes for which the Charter of 1650 was granted: ‘The advancement of all good literature, arts, and sciences; the advancement and education of youth in all manner of good literature, arts, and sciences; and all other necessary provisions that may conduce to the education of the … youth of this country….’ In brief: Harvard strives to create knowledge, to open the minds of students to that knowledge, and to enable students to take best advantage of their educational opportunities.”
How does foresight help? If you take a deeper look into the future, it is often easier to see past the immediate needs of the institution, namely money: this quarter’s revenues or next year’s budget. You can focus more clearly on the growth and development of the organization in its service to its mission, not just its financial survival. Certainly this is true for non-profits that clearly don’t exist just to build up capital and income streams. Of course some for-profit companies really do exist to build themselves up financially. But even for many a for-profit company—it’s not size for size’ sake, nor revenue for revenue’s sake that is the reason to exist. Greater profits might come from scaling down.
Surely most institutions don’t want to lose sight of their missions, and fall into a pattern of preserving the beast at all costs. And I don’t think Harvard does either.
A special thanks to Ellen Miller a friend a colleague of my wife at Stonebridge Associates for pointing me to the Carey essay. I always learn something new from Ellen.
Image: apesara, via Flickr, cc license

Does the economic crisis create an opening?

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The economic crisis is disrupting the big systems we depend on, and we have a long way to go before most of us can be reassured about how things will turn out. The market crisis is rooted in badly warped and out-of-control financial systems, but we are also at a moment of potential transformational change in our recognition of high energy costs, and the importance of addressing environmental issues. For Americans, a series of natural disasters, including Hurricane Ike, only add to the sense we face enormous challenges.

These joined crises represent a re-setting of things on a global scale. What was normal three weeks ago, is changed. Conventional wisdom has been shown up and made wrong. Our assumptions about the world, the market, and so on, have to be re-thought. So let’s get some value out of that. What’s bad in our immediate view can be good for driving new futures thinking.

It is time to take up a serious, but positive question: “now what?” We should restart our thinking and look at:

  • The fundamentals: is our business model or organizational mission sound? Should we change it? How?
  • Our strengths and resiliency facing change: not what have we lost, but what have we got that is valuable and strong as we face the future? Put the focus on strengths and opportunities, not just on weaknesses and threats.
  • What do we want? If things are going to change, how would we like the future to turn out? Let’s assume we can’t have precisely what we wanted to have a few weeks ago. But what can we have, and what do we want?
  • What should we do differently? Since “everything” is changing, let’s be sure to not hang on to old ways and old systems by accident. Let’s revisit things we’ve been doing and change them if they need changing.

Being able to ask and consider these questions is an opportunity to make changes as we move into the next few years and decades. This is a way to take a longer-term view and a positive perspective on what’s happening, instead of a bunker mentality, and a false hope that everything will go back to normal.

As the economic crisis continues, we need to be sure all our energy doesn’t go to worrying, fretting, and taking stop-gap action. We must do what we must do, but it’s powerful and valuable to also give energy to the future. Now is the perfect moment to say “what’s next?” and to give answering that question our best thoughts and ideas.  

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