John Mahaffie

"Four percent," the senior agency leader said. And that stopped the roll forward of an enthusiastic riff by my futurist colleague standing at the front of the room, and stilled the nodding heads of the already-converted who'd decided this was all cool stuff.

We had been discussing what is sometines called "the new agriculture," niche farming for local consumption: small, specialty crop production sold, mostly, at nearby farm stands and gourmet groceries, and the emergence of urban rooftop farming in the mix.

"Sorry?" the futurist said.

"It's four percent, that's it. This new agriculture is only four percent of the state's total agricutural production." I looked at the man. I realized that he was top brass at the state's department of agriculture.

This was a moment to assert the importance of the small changes coming in from the margins, and the potential for what is so far only a fringe development to not only grow in importance, but to influence the mainstream (the 96% of agriculture, in this case).

A futurist has a fascination with what happens on the margins, because that, so often, is where change comes from. Something small, and sometimes too small to catch the notice of an executive, or to pass muster as a trend that matters, may be the thing of most interest to the futurist.

And so we bide our time, asserting the importance of curious new developments, until our audiences begin to feel the reality of those things. We regularly want to burst out with, when suddenly people "discover" some trend, "That's what I've been telling you for nine years!" Our seeds need to wait for conditions to be right to sprout, unless we can nuture those conditions sooner.

And we can. There are ways to make the case for change, earlier.

For the grounded-in-today's-reality executive, a clearer view of the future as an outcome makes the difference. The thin wedge of change which we may detect now in a fringe trend or "four percent" phenomenon could be the mainstream reality of 2025. Painting a picture of that future year will show how things could play out, in effect, previewing the 4% becoming 40% or 50% or 60%.

To grapple with that possibility, we need to take the "four percent" and try it out as 60%. We need to paint a full picture of the "what if" outcome that would represent. And we need to do it together. It's not enough for the "crazy futurist" to imagine alone. It's far better for a group in an organization to put their heads into the future and tell each other the story of what's possible. That's why building scenarios–stories of the future told as if it has happened–is so powerful. Ant it's most powerful when it's done by a group of colleagues. Find ways to really get you and your colleagues' heads in the future, to deepen the view and the sense of outcomes that are out there. That will make the distant hints of change into something useful–early awareness of the potential future.

Some further insights:

Thoughts on the power of scenarios: Why I love introducing scenario thinking to people

Examples of scenarios: Exploring the Future for Education: Three Scenarios for 2025

Environmental scanning is the ongoing review of information sources that is integral to identifying trends and monitoring for leading-edge change. To some people who don’t do environmental scanning, it looks like a lot of web surfing and magazine reading—a distraction or waste of time.

How can it be a good use of time? It’s open-ended. Yet futurists urge people in organizations to do more of it. Can business executives really afford to spend that time? What does it yield?

Environmental scanning is a perfectly good fun, and continually interesting, especially since a big portion of it is often driven by one’s interests. But the scanner is left with a little angst—what to do with the stuff? Should I print it out and file it? Should I blog about it? Should I tell someone? Is there some way to collect the good stuff and make it useful?

In fact, the act of scanning can be as loose as it often is, without being ineffective or inefficient. Scanning builds context for one’s thinking about the future. The more accumulated clues, cues, and knowledge you have, the better the chance that analysis and decisions will be properly thought through, tested against existing and emerging realities, and informed by a broad range of contextual forces and factors.

But yes, you should make something of your discoveries. Environmental scanning helps ensure that you get earlier notice of emerging change—issues, trends, and new challenges that may come from beyond your current view, especially from outside your field or sector. It may prevent you from finding out about something critical from a customer, a vendor, or even from a crisis.

A scanning discovery is not of any use until you put it to use so consider these ideas:

Drawing a conclusion about what you find for your work. Write it down. You are converting a raw observation into something that may lead to action, a change of direction, a decision to monitor something further, etc.
Keeping a “commonplace book”—a note taking place for your discoveries and observations. If you are a good trend spotter, you can log the trends you are observing or discovering. A list of leading edge trends is a powerful tool to draw out for a team discussion, to test ideas, ensure you are thinking comprehensively about a problem or opportunity. Maybe for you this would work as a daily or weekly blog, so colleagues can share your discoveries.
Telling your colleagues—one or more people who really should know about what you found. We are glad to share funny YouTube videos, but seem less practiced at sharing a discovered trends, a thought-provoking blog, a story that shapes our understanding of the marketplace.
Sharing your discoveries by email/listserve/blog and ask for comment. You might be the right person to “report” on trends and issues this way. If the messages are provocative and suitably well-labeled, you might get ongoing interest. Does your organization have a trend person? Could you take up that role? It might only require a few minutes a week to do that.
Using scanning discoveries to provoke dialogue—send a note, for example, that says: “I am seeing a lot of things suggesting a backlash against bottle water—do you think this will come to a head and affect our closures business?”

Update: Please see also this special page on environmental scanning.