Simple triage to keep sane while scanning

TriageIf you work at anticipating and understanding the future, you are in a permanent, 24/7, 365 day-a-year environmental scan. It's what you do, on the job or off. 

But that means endless opportunity to distract yourself, if you are doing a good, broad scan of lots of sources of information. That kind of scan, done right, means you are not sure what you are going to find as you work–you have to be "all over the map". It's what you're supposed to do..

So you have a problem: you find it hard to focus the scanning on your current needs and work–it's too open and exploratory. You can easily get lost, or use up time exploring, unsure if you should be doing that.

Don't try to narrow what you look at, you need the power and value of the view broad. But you also need a bring some discipline to your scanning efforts. 

Here is a triage approach you can use. Consider three categories of information, and how to handle them:

1. Short and of immediate use — things related to your current work. Read, process, share, etc. right now. Get the value from these sources as you discover them.

2. Park for later today or sometime soon, when you are not working on this particular task — things of near-at-hand use, such as on a different task or project than the one you are doing now. You might leave these on your bookmark bar.

3. Long read, extended viewing, etc. for my leisure time or reading time — things that you can tell are good to know, are informative or educational, but are more speculatively-linked to your work. Save links to these, download, print, bookmark, etc. There are lots of ways to do this, and you can find one that fits you. I use the Instapaper web app. I just click on "Read Later" and then go to my Instapaper collection, download them to an e-reader, and read them when I have time.

Your version of this approach can make a different to your productivity, and perhaps your sanity, as you work to be effective at scanning.

Image: Brian Gratwicke, via Flickr, creative commons attribution license

In which the futurist contradicts himself

I’ve written at length about the importance of raising awareness of the world around us, the forces of change, and the emerging future. [See these posts] I have advocated the tools of Web 2.0 as central tools for environmental scanning [see here]. I stand by all of those thoughts, but need to interrupt myself to counterweigh that advice.

Too many of the information tools of our lives raise the risk of destroying our capacity for, or habit of, deeper thought and analysis. What happens is, we get access to an enormous amount of information about specific things: new gadgets, new data, new business models. But the “big picture” goes missing, or we are so overwhelmed by the nitty-gritty that we don’t have time or energy left to consider the broader sweep of change, and its implications.

Fortunately, other foresight tools can come to the rescue. While monitoring trends can lead us to breaking down the future world into bits and parts, scenarios, forecasting, and deeper futures analysis each insist that you delve into bigger picture futures, and build a framework for thinking about a coherent whole. That task demands consistency, thoroughness, and well-thought-out analysis. Most of all, it demands quality time from you. You need the time to focus and get good thinking done.

So I urge anyone working to keep the future in focus to not miss the forest for the trees or even the leaves. Trend blogs and electronic news sources are great for spotting new technologies and other clues to change. But you need to put the story together more comprehensively, too.

You can find some of the people and organizations that grapple with the bigger picture of the future, and work to frame thinking about it in ways that are clear and useful. This is what I try to do in my work, and it’s the hallmark of the sources of insight I find critical. I have added a special page on this site, “Reframers” that offers links to some of my favorites.

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