John Mahaffie

Three scenarios for 2020

A core part of our focus on “50+@Work,” is a set of 2020 scenarios that explore a range of possible ways employers may be handling older workers in the near-term future. Each is highly plausible, and our 2020 situation may, in fact, be a blend of the three, depending on the employer, the sector, and other factors. We use these scenarios to help groups explore their choices, and the potential human capital marketplace they will face in a decade or so.

The 2020 scenarios in brief:

Business as usual – Employers continue to push out older workers, on purpose, or inadvertently. They lose assets and often face higher costs in replacing older workers with younger ones.

War for talent – Employers battle for a high-skilled subset of older workers, bidding up their incomes, though other older workers struggle to stay employed in meaningful work.

Sagacious human capital – Many if not most employers recognize the value of older talent, the skills, experience, and wisdom of workers in their 50s, 60s, and beyond.

A key point of these scenarios is to focus employer thinking on the impacts and costs of inaction. There are opportunities to improve approaches to human capital in general, and older workers in particular. What we have now in a lot of organizations is inefficient and unnecessarily costly.

We work with organizations to explore the impacts of the scenarios and employer strategic options as they look for greater success with an aging workforce. At the simplest level, anyone can pull a small team together, and spend time discussing these three ideas about the future, and what they mean. Doing that will get a vital conversation going, exploring questions including:

Do we fit any of these three now?
Which is more likely in our sector?
Which do we prefer?
What advantages and strengths do we bring to this question?
Are we doing what we should for the best business outcomes?
What are our strategic options?

In part 1, we explained our focus on 50+@Work and the joint initiatives of Leading Futurists LLC and Green Consulting Group LLC.

In part 3, we suggest more things employers can do, with our without our help, to confront the topic, and find ways to greater success with the aging workforce.

Changing how we think about older workers

People have trouble imagining the lives of people 65+ including ongoing, meaningful work. That is despite plenty of examples of happy, vital, productive older people. And it’s probably true even for a lot of people in range of that age—they accept the conventions in society that say when you are about 65, you should retire.

But older people often want to work and many have to work past “retirement age”. Some want the challenge and stimulation of work, some need the income, and some want both. As good health lasts deeper into people’s seventh and eighth decades, they don’t feel like they need to go home and rest. The Baby Boomers will be especially intent on changing what it means to be 65+. So we’re in for a big rethink of what it means to be older.

Meanwhile, employers continue to struggle to find the skills and experience they need. Older worker talent is a critical resource for their success.

My company, Leading Futurists LLC with Dr. Katherine Green of Green Consulting Group LLC, has built an ongoing initiative on this topic. Our efforts include a Facebook community page, 50+@Work. And a Twitter feed of insights and important links on the topic, @50PlusatWork. Please come join us at either or both.

Through these efforts, we are helping employers explore how to be successful with 50+ workers—not as a way to do a social good, but because it’s good business. We offer an interactive guide for exploring, envisioning, and planning how to find that success. We also offer workshops to help organizations rethink their efforts, and develop strategies that get beyond the low-hanging fruit.

We will continue this discussion:

In part 2, we take a brief look at three 2020 scenarios about employers and the aging workforce

In part 3, we suggest some things employers can do, with our without our help, to confront the topic, and find ways to greater success with the aging workforce

50+@Work, part 2

50+@Work, part 1