Foresight: Seeing the big in the small

Hop! the following suitcaseA problem I face when deciding what ideas about the future to share is that people tend to have heard of most cutting-edge things I might tell them. Why is that? It’s because the future is well known, or at least specific things about it are.

But sitting just behind the “famous” truths about the future is a lot of critical insight on what the changes that are so well known could actually mean. These insights are most often about a changed system or complex of systems.

Here’s a great example. Designer Rodrigo Garcia Gonzalez has developed a rolling suitcase that follows its owner [Link]. The suitcase has a motor, and uses three Bluetooth receivers to triangulate on the owner’s smart phone. What a great idea. Some will find it fun, some mind-boggling.

But when we see a development like that, we don’t really know what it means. What does that add up to? Does it change our lives that much? Does it change anything more than the way you take your suitcase along? Or is it just a suitcase that follows you?

It’s the bigger system that smart things like this suitcase is a part of that matters, not a singular, however delightful, technological development. The work of foresight includes not just learning about a technology like that, but seeing how it fits with other emerging change, whether it represents a narrow example of a much greater possibility. One task is to say, what if there was more of that sort of thing? What would it mean? Another is to say, does this technology prove possibilities that could spread to other uses?

So put that smart suitcase in a wider context. It’s about technology that serves us: quietly, obediently, automatically, conveniently. It’s about adding smarts to ordinary things so that they serve us better. It’s about technologies that anticipate our needs, and respond to them flexibly. And its about harnessing automation outside of the factory–for daily, ordinary, human use.

This way of thinking has helped people move from the notion of a 3D printer — device that “prints” objects — to the idea of additive manufacturing, where complex objects can be produced flexibly, even custom, by laying up material, instead of carving it away or molding it. It led to further thoughts: if you can print a plastic object, why not food, or human tissues?

So when you see news like the story of Hop! the following suitcase, the thing to do is to think: what else could be like that? What is this helping us learn to do and learn to imagine. So we can thank Rodrigo Garcia Gonzalez for a smart suitcase, but we can also thank him for stirring our imaginations and inspiring more ideas and innovation.

Image: Gizmag.com

The power of silence

Insights come more reliably to an undistracted mind. Have you noticed a little magic in the otherwise purgatorial time you spend with the cabin doors closed, approved electronic devices off, between pull back and take-off? Have you noticed that you had a few moments to think?  That few minutes is a blessing–it’s time you are given to spend un-distracted by the interruption of your digital daily life. Embrace it!

Yet most of us work intently to optimize our distractions: fine-tuning i-devices with apps and connections, so that we might encounter information all the time. Mobile digital life guarantees that you can have something to distract yourself whereever you go, whatever you are doing. Your thoughts are under siege.

You can even listen to music or the radio while swimming or showering. You can take in NPR or a book on tape while walking your dog or doing yard work. But don’t!

  • Turn the radio off when you drive, sometimes
  • Leave the iPod home when you walk the dog, sometimes
  • Don’t use a shower radio, each time
  • Clear some time with your thoughts, all the time

You get the picture.

How does this apply to foresight? Thinking about the future is a tough mental game. To effectively explore and understand it, you need to do think about a lot of things at once. You have to think altogether new thoughts. This is equally true for effective analysis and writing.

There are new connections to be made, insights that need time to germinate and ground to sprout in. “A ha!” moments need to break through, from your subconscious. Must they contend with the latest on the Jets or J-Lo? The Dow or the Dodgers? The boss’s memo? It seems they must, until we reach for the “off” switch, or put down the i-thing for a little while. And when you write, don’t always stop to look things up, consult other sources. Sometimes let the ideas flow, the writing come out. Fact check later.

To have some success thinking about the future, you really need to think about it. That includes time away from distractions, absolutely, but it even includes time away from the facts and finds that you may be using to try to understand your future. If you don’t stop taking in information long enough to think about it, you won’t quite get there.

Image: saturn ?, via Flickr, CC attribution license.

 

Don’t just answer the question you are asked

wrong questionInnocently or not, you are often asked a specific, even narrow question. Your natural tendency is to answer it, on its own terms, as asked. This happens all the time in organizations grappling with change. Most of the time, the asker is only trying to get the answer they think they need. They assume they are asking the right question.

But you may well need to change the question.

It’s colud be the wrong question

It probably rests on old thinking

It’s most likely based on conventional wisdom

It may be too narrowly focused, or focused on the wrong question or issue

It’s view is probably too narrow and too close to the action

So you need, often if not always, to change the question. Usually, that means to open up the thinking behind it, to put more up for a re-think.

Quick thought: Write to learn, write to understand

Pen and paperIn our often frenzied, multi-tasking lives, it’s hard to get quality thinking done. I recommend using writing as a way to learn, to think, and to figure things out. The act of writing (more than a couple of paragraphs) requires you to think something through, frame your thoughts in new ways, and figure out relationships among ideas. You may discover in writing that you learned something new, something that might never have come fully formed to mind. 

Nurturing the habit of writing to explore and understand means doing more writing. And, since exploring the future is open-ended, everything is important and relevant to the future–you need to capture your thinking, nearly anytime, anyplace. Having a commonplace book or journal–whether it’s handwritten or electronic–is a great way to seize the moment and get something written down. You can always return later to see if what you wrote is worth developing further. but get it written down or you may lose the thought altogether.

 
Image: Boa-sorte&Careca, via Flickr, cc license

 

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