Opinions, fully formed, via the Internet

Horse with blindersAs information consumers we have a growing problem. Our marvelous technology—and it is truly marvelous—is too good at only feeding us the information we want to consume. Even as we have 24/7 access to whatever information we want, we also have the tools to make what we see precisely, and narrowly, what we want to see, and nothing more. But that's terrible environmental scanning (the process we use to really keep up with what's going on).

In the old days, the editors of newspapers, magazines, and broadcast news served us up what we wanted to know, e.g. the score from last night’s game, or who Liz Taylor was marrying, and what they saw as what we needed to know; what the town council had done, why we should vaccinate our children, and so on.
 
But I can now arrange to get my news and information from specific and narrow sources. I can consume just what I want, and what I already agree with. I can fine tune that flow of information to ensure that I don’t “waste my time” with reading things I don’t agree with. It’s now easier than ever to be like Sinclair Lewis’ George Babbitt: “Neither the Advocate-Times, the Evening Advocate, nor the Bulletin of the Zenith Chamber of Commerce had ever had an editorial on the matter, and until one of them had spoken he found it hard to form an original opinion.”  
 
There is much that is terrific about this information power we now have. But with the power comes two big problems for everyone, and certainly for those of us trying to understand a changing world and consciously shape the future:
 
1). Often, the information sources we choose have dropped all pretense that they will show the other side of the story—they are partisan in whatever realm they play: politics or lifestyles, for example. And they also, for editorial or economic reasons, often fail to give the full context for the story. We don't get enough information and context to truly evaluate what we are seeing. That means we are even less likely to examine our own assumptions and consider how/why we might change our minds about an issue. This is true of some television news and opinion shows, lots of bloggers, and lots of newsletters and magazines.
 
2). What would seem to be the opposite case, the tendency of some media organizations to always put opposing view in front of us, too often does not work the way it is supposed to. Instead of a balanced discussion that informs us, we get at best a strong dialog on the partisan battle, and who is winning and who is losing. We don’t get the views of each side, elaborated. We get the puffery and trash talk you might see in the lead up to a prize fight. The writer goes and gets two "voices" to take sides, rather than doing the journalist work of exploring different points of view. 
 
As technology evolves, these problems may become even more acute. We need to watch ourselves closely, and try to see what is happening in our information consumption, and, most likely, what we can do to compensate. We need a broader perspective on our world than news feeds such as RSS, watching a partisan cable news channel, or reading narrowly-focused newsletters might bring us.
 
The same technology can offer a broader perspective—if we allow it to. It’s time to build a habit of opening up some channels for the ideas and information from more diverse sources. Some of my earlier advice on doing this can be found at these posts:
 
 
 
And the special feature of this blog, Environmental Scanning 2.0, offers a number of strategies. 
 
Image: Alex E Proimos, via Flickr, cc license

Mind the gaps

Mind the GapMy daily newspaper is shrinking before my eyes. We’re entering a gap—the kind of gap that is common in changing systems—where the new (digital news) is not ready as the old (newspapers) fades away.

Print news is failing faster than digital news media can become adequate for our needs as a society. It’s not that online news is no good, and that print news is best. It is just that digital news is not fully-developed economically or institutionally. Digital “news” is still dominated by web sites and blogs that simply link to the offerings of the traditional media. They are not doing their own reporting, and meanwhile the print media are radically cutting back on reporting.

People see enormous life and vitality in online media, news websites, and news blogs. But in addition to the low level of reporting, most digital media are also not yet sustainable as businesses—the online news media have not proven themselves economically. Can they survive if the traditional media fails? What will they do if they can no longer tap traditional media?

We’ll probably get there—I expect to enjoy much more, higher-quality, online news before too long. But in this example, as in so many others, there is a lag between the decline or failure of established things, and the adequacy of what replaces them.

Other examples of historic and current gaps:

Manufacturing economies—dependent on a manufacturing base that has moved away, and with inadequate post-industrial economies to maintain employment and income, especially for the working classes.

Personal telephony—there was a lag in building secure, locatable, reliable mobile services comparable to landlines. Most important in this lag was the ability for emergency services to know where you called from if the call came from a mobile phone.

Letter writing—the art of letter writing faded away before we had embraced email and more current social media as ways to stay in touch, person to person. (Though for historians, the new forms of personal correspondence will likely prove inadequate.)

Physical fitness—our lives became substantially sedentary in the industrial and post-industrial era, and we’ve had to scramble to find ways to add back physical activity. Muscle work, which we once were paid to do, we now pay for in gym memberships.

What can futurists do about these gaps? We have several ways we can be valuable:

  • Anticipate the change—the end or decline of an established system. In that we may help the cause by inspiring more people to think about, and plan for the change. This could shorten or eliminate the gap, and might help some old businesses make a successful transition to the new, rather than failing as others come up with the new business models.
  • Envision what comes next, and get more people on board giving it concrete, serious thought. One thing that often happens is that people resist the change in ways that slow our advance to whatever comes next. By helping people envision a successful future, we are also likely to shorten the gap between old and new, and to smooth the way, reduce the losses and inefficiencies in the changeover.

The awful economic crisis we’re experiencing now will accelerate the decline of a lot of things that were probably going to decline anyway, and in others force change where change needed to happen. With luck and with careful, futures-informed work, some of this can be “creative destruction”. In other words, good new things can come from the destruction of some systems. But that’s not an automatic process, we have to get to work on it.

Image: Marcin Wichary, via Flickr, cc license

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